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Why the Dodgers will falter
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| Why the Dodgers will falter
-- Wed, Apr 20 2005 09:37AM
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The Los Angeles Dodgers currently hold the best record in baseball and are riding a 7-game win streak. They've done it against teams with a combined 25-29 record (SF, SD, Arizona, and Milwaukee). Their schedule stays soft with their next 14 games against SD, Colorado, Arizona, and Washington. Then comes a 16 game stretch (with no off days) against Cincinnati, St. Louis, Atlanta, Florida, and the Angels.
With Wilson Alvarez and Brad Penny on the DL, Scott Erickson and Elmer Dessens have taken the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. Erickson's career has been riddled with injuries in recent years and Dessens is a middle-reliever turned starter until Alvarez or Penny is healthy enough to pitch. Also, consider that Erickson, Penny, and Alvarez have struggled with injuries and chronic ailments and Wilson Alvarez (currently on the DL) hasn't won more than 10 games since 1997. With pitching this shaky, the current win streak has got to be close to an end.
That's not to say there aren't bright spots to the rotation. Derek Lowe should win 15 this season (esp. since he's out of Fenway) and Weaver could do the same if he has the offense to back him. But Gagne's nursing a sore elbow and Yhency Brazoban is probably too young and inexperienced at this point to fill the closer void left by Gagne. Once hitters see Brazoban a few times he'll get knocked around more (this will be problematic in upcoming series with SD and Arizona if Gagne isn't healthy by then). When Penny comes back, his elbow is a liability too and management may limit his pitch count, putting more pressure on the bullpen.
The bullpen has only one lefty, Kelly Wunsch, who pitched all of 2 innings last season and hasn't pitched more than 60 since 2000. Unless they acquire a new southpaw or bring someone up from the farm system, the Dodgers will undoubtedly face bullpen problems by the All-Star break.
Offensively, the Dodgers are reliant on Kent and Bradley. JD Drew, to date, has under-produced and batting before Kent you'd think he'd be getting more opportunities to hit, he may yet improve, but he had better protection last year in the Braves' lineup with the likes of Marcus Giles, Chipper, and Johnny Estrada. Batting after a rookie like Repko or a mediocre 1B like Choi doesn't help much.
I'm thinking the Dodgers will do a little better than .500 over the next 14 games (9-5) and then fade over the following 16. Look for San Francisco to move up over the next month with 12 games against Pittsburgh and Colorado.
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Posted By
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Snee
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Posted In
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 Baseball
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